Author Archive

Pew’s Top “Green Jobs” States of 2009 See Large Increase in Unemployment

In June of 2009, the Pew Charitable Trusts released its report on green jobs and the top states for green job creation. In announcing the report, they proclaimed “Pew Finds Clean Energy Economy Generates Significant Job Growth.” The report projected strong job growth for the states it identified as having the best climate for green jobs creation.

Two years later, how have those states fared? The results should offer lessons to policymakers and the President.

The top “green jobs” state in the nation, according to Pew, was Oregon. In March 2008, when unemployment began to take off, Oregon’s unemployment rate was 5.3 percent, slightly higher than the national average of 5.1 percent. Today, Oregon’s unemployment rate is 9.5 percent, higher than the nation’s 9.1 percent unemployment rate. Additionally, the gap between Oregon’s unemployment rate and the nation has increased.

Colorado is another state highlighted by Pew. In March of 2008, Colorado’s unemployment rate was nearly one percent below the national average, at 4.2 percent. Today, it is still lower than the national average, but the gap has narrowed to 0.6 percent. Despite the promise that green jobs would grow more quickly than other sectors, Colorado has seen a greater percentage increase in unemployment than the nation as a whole.

California was highlighted by Pew, not only for creating green jobs, but for having a favorable policy environment for green job creation. It’s unemployment rate currently stands at 12 percent. In March 2008, its unemployment rate was 1 percent higher than the national average. Today it is nearly 3 percent higher.

The President avoided promises to create new green jobs in his speech before Congress, in part due to the recent and dramatic failure of solar panel company Solyndra. Calling for more of the same after that dramatic failure would have been tone deaf. The left, however, is still counting on green jobs finding their way into the plan when it is actually implemented.

Before we look to spend billions more on green jobs, we should consider the poor results we’ve seen in the very states green jobs advocates themselves highlighted.

How the Rise of Trendy Environmentalism is Harming the Environment

Green is a trend and people go with trends. … I don’t think people know the real facts.

These words of a green consumer reported in The New York Times last year echo what we see everywhere: environmentalism has become trendy, and green fashion is all the rage. As environmental issues have become trendy, however, the way individuals and politicians make environmental decisions has changed. Instead of weighing policies or products based on their environmental benefit, many now choose policies that offer the greatest social benefit — the approval of your peers, voters and others — even if these policies don’t actually help the environment.

The growing popularity of eco-fads is not merely bad for the economy, it is bad for the environment. Waste of money is waste of resources, and choosing expensive policies that do little for the environment wastes opportunities to create clean water, clean air, wildlife habitat and the like.

This growing problem is the subject of “Eco-Fads: How the rise of trendy environmentalism is harming the environment.” While many on the left will argue that we are better safe than sorry, even if it means promoting some policies that don’t actually help the environment, the truth is that eco-fads are not benign. The excerpt below shows how the popularity of “green” building mandates has actually increased energy use.

The lesson is not merely that the left’s approach to environmental policy is increasingly ineffective and even counterproductive. It is that the creativity cultivated in a free market offers the best opportunity to provide the environmental opportunities, like hunting, hiking, fishing that people of all political stripes value. The left’s commitment to eco-fads increasingly demonstrates that not only is the free market the best way to promote prosperity, it is the best way to protect the planet.

“Eco-Fads” is available from the Washington Policy Center or on Amazon.com.


What kind of person would oppose the latest in environmentally friendly buildings – those built to meet “green” building standards? If they were honest with themselves, environmentalists.

“Green” buildings are all the rage among environmental activists who want to cut carbon emissions by making our lives more energy efficient. Inefficient buildings, they argue, are a key cause of “climate pollution.” They repeatedly note that buildings account for a significant share of energy use in the United States and the only way to cut our total carbon emissions is to take significant steps in making them more efficient.

The environmental community has even created a system they claim will achieve that important goal. LEED, short for Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design, is the creation of the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC), which is the nation’s most prominent green building advocate and a darling of the environmental community. Environmental activists across the country have not been satisfied with encouraging builders and owners to adopt LEED in their design process. They have actively lobbied numerous communities, states and federal agencies, to make achieving LEED certification a requirement for government and, sometimes, private buildings.

The goal is to dramatically reduce carbon emissions and the risks from climate change. After all, climate change (or global warming…whatever term suits you), is “the most important issue facing this generation.” The stakes simply could not be higher and environmental activists stress that without serious efforts to reduce the energy used in buildings, we will never achieve the aggressive carbon emissions reductions needed to avoid the array of dangerous calamities that await us.

One might conclude that such an important, far-reaching policy would be extremely expensive. Not so, claim advocates of green buildings. Although “green” buildings do cost more, the added cost, about two percent more, is very small. Wouldn’t you pay six cents more for an environmentally friendly cup of coffee? Who would claim that an extra $10 is too much to pay for a dishwasher that helps save the planet? What kind of person would mortgage their children’s future by refusing to pay just two percent more for a green building?

After all, with such a small up-front cost, the energy savings will quickly pay for themselves. Green buildings, it is claimed, cut energy costs by up to 50 percent, allowing building owners to recover the additional cost in just a few years. After that, the savings are all planet-saving gravy.

As if that were not enough, green buildings also make you healthier and smarter.

Advocates claim green buildings provide more fresh air, reducing the potential for “sick buildings,” cutting sick days and absenteeism in green buildings. The benefits of improved health in these buildings adds up quickly, more than paying for the additional costs in reduction in lost worker time and reduction in health insurance costs – so the story goes.

As we are saving our children’s environmental future with green buildings, we’re also making them smarter. Green building supporters confidently claim the extra daylight available in green schools make children smarter, improving test scores and significantly improving their learning environment. Green schools alone increase test scores by ten percent say the “studies.”

It should not come as a surprise, then, that the Washington State Legislature and City of Seattle have both adopted rules favoring these trendy new environmental building standards. To great fanfare, the politicians behind these new requirements were quick to take credit for their courageous stand for the environment – a stand that would help save the planet and save us money.

Parading before the legislature were experts in architecture and engineering, promising that these new regulations would easily save money and reduce energy use. They pointed to a number of schools across the state that had already adopted these rules and were already “saving” about 30 percent in energy costs – money that would quickly pay back the additional cost.

When it turned out that one of the green schools was, in fact, not saving 30 percent but was actually using 30 percent more energy than a school built at the same time in the same school district, legislators were told that while mistakes had been made, the building would soon be achieving those energy savings.

When it turned out that studies promising these savings were shoddy or inaccurate, the legislative lobbyist for the environmental community laughed it off, saying he “wasn’t a big fan of studies in particular,” without explaining how he did get the information he used to make decisions.

Time would tell the story, supporters insisted, that these new rules would be a real benefit for the environment.

Six years later, what is the verdict?

Among dozens of “green” schools in Washington state, only two use less energy than traditional schools built in those same districts. In more than one instance, the “green” schools use 30 percent more energy per square foot than schools built without the elements the politicians and environmental activists promised would so spectacularly cut energy use. Frustrated building managers in these districts are candid about the failures of these new rules even as they feel obliged to defend them in public, often standing next to the politicians who promised the rules would yield great savings.

While the building managers fretted over the failure of the promised energy savings, some teachers and principals praised the buildings for being lighter and cleaner. The data, however, show that green schools aren’t healthier than new schools built without the “green” embellishments. Absentee rates among students are little different at green schools and, just like energy, are actually worse in some of the green buildings.

Most revealing, perhaps, is the fact that when comparing the student achievement ratings provided by the state of Washington for 42 “green” schools compared to the 407 traditional schools in those same districts, the “green” schools ratings are actually worse.

Higher energy use. More sick days. Lower test scores. And all for a higher price.

Such failures do not deter politicians eager to portray themselves as environmentally responsible. After all, they are showing leadership in the fight against climate change. Even if the buildings are merely a symbol of that fight, they serve a purpose – just like the electric car charging station installed at one of the green schools more than a year ago that has never been used. Even if it is not useful in the traditional sense of providing an actual service, it serves as a monolith, a monument honoring those who care about the environment.

Of course, wasting money on efforts that produce no tangible environmental benefit should be condemned especially if the stakes are as high as environmental advocates claim. Real environmentalism is based in a desire to use resources responsibly and reduce waste of money and resources.

Wasting money to save the environment should be an oxy-moron. Increasingly, however, it is not. Wasting money on trendy environmental projects, what I call “eco-fads,” has actually become commonplace for politicians and even green consumers. Rather than judging policies based on their results, eco-fads grow in popularity based on their ability to confer a green image to those who embrace them – just like the most recent fashion trends offer social benefits to those with the latest shoe style.

I have benefitted from spending a decade working on environmental politics in an area that has launched many of the eco-fads people everyone now recognize. What may seem new or trendy in other parts of the world have been the norm in the Ecotopian Northwest for many years.

The purpose of this book is to help share an understanding of the range of forces that have taken us in the wrong direction and to show how we can begin to get back on track, creating a prosperous and sustainable legacy for our planet’s future.

Left-Wing Group Exposes Its Environmental Ignorance

A new, left-wing group called ALEC Exposed has popped up taking aim at the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) noting that the organization brings legislators from across the country together to, surprise, exchange ideas about legislation. ALEC Exposed is also unhappy that businesses have a seat at the table during discussions.

Free-market think tanks also have a seat at ALEC’s table. For instance, I sit on the Energy, Environment and Agriculture Task Force, a committee that offers ideas about how to harness free-market ideas to improve environmental sustainability. I don’t agree with everything that comes out of the committee (I was one of only two “no” votes on a recent proposal before the committee), but there are several effective ideas discussed and formalized.

So desperate is Center for Media and Democracy, the group behind ALEC Exposed, to attack the group, it is clear they have decided that thinking (and proof reading) only slows their efforts to hatchet ALEC.

Take, for example, a piece of ALEC model legislation I helped draft called the “Climate Accountability Act.” The legislation requires companies that contract with the government on carbon-reduction projects to quantify the amount of carbon that will be reduced in the contract. If the business does not deliver that level of reduction, they must make it up in other ways. Under the model legislation, taxpayers are assured they receive the promised environmental benefit.

ALEC Exposed, however, analyzes the legislation this way:

This “model” legislation attempts to create hurdles to state agencies attempting to regulation [sic] carbon gasses by attempting to impose cost assessments on carbon regulation, without any parallel accounting required of businesses that are contributing to climate change.

If they didn’t take the time to proof read their analysis, we shouldn’t be surprised they didn’t take the time to read or understand the bill. The Act imposes no obligations on government. The only obligations imposed are on businesses that contract with government to reduce carbon emissions. So, the critique has it completely backward.

Second, this demonstrates they don’t really care about achieving actual carbon emissions reductions — they only want to appear that they care. Why else would they complain about holding businesses accountable for failing to deliver the environmental benefits taxpayers paid for?

Finally, they complain about imposing “cost assessments” on carbon regulation. This bill doesn’t do that, but what exactly is the problem with such assessments? Would they be supportive of a policy that spent $1 million to reduce one ton of carbon emissions? What if they could get 50,000 times as much reduction for the same price? They don’t want to know. Their goal is political, not to help the environment.

Again and again, we see environmental policies failing to deliver the environmental results they promised. The approach of ALEC’s critics to the issue demonstrates why. Environmental groups and politicians focus more on appearance than reality. In the words of President Obama, there are some “who would rather see their opponents lose than see America win” — or to see the environment benefit. That’s obviously the approach of ALEC’s critics and it exposes their ignorance.

EPA, CDC and Pacific Northwest National Labs Debunk a Chemical Scare

This year, Washington state became one of nine states to ban a compound known as bisphenol-A or BPA, from a number of children’s products. The ban was justified based on concerns that BPA caused a range of problems from hormone disruption to obesity. The concern is that BPA contained in food containers would be ingested and lead to these problems.

The problem is that the science has never been there to justify these concerns. A new study funded by the EPA and conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratories in Washington state goes even further to undermine the concerns, showing that even after subjects ate from containers containing BPA, the amount of the compound that actually makes it into the bloodstream is so low it is “below our ability to detect them.”

The lead author Justin Teegarden put the results of this study this way:

In a nutshell, we can now say for the adult human population exposed to even very high dietary levels, blood concentrations of the bioactive form of BPA throughout the day are below our ability to detect them, and orders of magnitude lower than those causing effects in rodents exposed to BPA.

The study is quite robust. Joining PNNL were the Centers for Disease Control and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. The results were also duplicated in two separate government labs. This is critical, as a writeup about the study in Forbes notes, because “CDC, EPA, and FDA researchers have repeatedly noted that even with extreme caution, contamination dogs BPA research, meaning that the levels of the chemical humans are exposed to have been repeatedly exaggerated by a handful of scientists, to support claims of ‘human relevant dosing.’ “In other words, much of the research used to justify the BPA scare is unreliable and exaggerated.

You can read the whole Forbes article here. I spoke with PNNL and they actually suggested this writeup, saying the author did a “good job” of describing the results and implications of the study.

With this new information will Legislatures in Washington state and elsewhere change their decisions? Probably not.

First, the value of such chemical bans for politicians is in the “green” image such votes cultivate. Few, if any, legislators can understand all the science, but they do understand politics, and voting to ban a chemical that may harm children is a political win, even if it is meaningless in the real world.

Second, environmental activists and politicians revert to a “better safe than sorry” justification for the rule. This, however, is not only unscientific, it is anti-scientific. The purpose of that approach is specifically to ignore science and data. “Sure the science says there is nothing to worry about, but better safe than sorry.” It is an excuse to throw science overboard and go with your gut feeling.

Such chemical scares are not benign. The scare about the relationship between vaccines and autism, which turned out to be forged, led many parents to expose their children to deadly diseases for no reason. Environmentalists have told pregnant women to avoid fish due to concerns about mercury in the fish, despite science demonstrating that eating fish while pregnant improves the IQ of children and their long-term health.

It is unlikely that legislators will admit their mistake. One can hope, however, that this becomes an object lesson the next time legislators face demands to ban the latest chemical environmental activists claim is harming us.

GAO Audit: Billions for Climate Policy With No Clear Purpose

Advocates of dramatic government policies to address climate change repeatedly call it “the most important issue humanity has ever faced.” Often, however, when it comes to developing effective policies, the words and deeds are at odds.

A recent report from the GAO found that despite spending tens of billions of taxpayer dollars on policies designed to address climate change, there is little coordination between those expenditures, limiting the effectiveness of that spending. The GAO noted that “Federal Funding for Climate Change Activities Increased Substantially from 2003 through 2010,” increasing to nearly 9 billion a year in 2010. In addition, the 2009 “stimulus” package included more than $26 billion in climate-related policies.

What is the result of all that funding? The GAO reported two key findings:

First, notwithstanding existing coordinating mechanisms, questionnaire results indicated that federal officials do not have a shared understanding of strategic priorities. This is in part due to inconsistent messages articulated in strategic plans and other policy documents. A 2008 Congressional Research Service analysis had similarly found no “overarching policy goal for climate change that guides the programs funded or the priorities among programs.” Second, respondents indicated that since mechanisms for aligning funding with priorities are nonbinding, they are limited when in conflict with agencies’ own priorities.

In other words, it is simply unclear what we’ve achieved for all of that spending. There is almost certainly a “bootleggers and baptists” problem here, while climate activists push for more spending, members of Congress and companies look for ways to get their hands on that funding, distorting the direction of the policy.

For politicians and activists, much of their benefit comes when government simply increases the amount it spends on climate change. Spending more demonstrates politicians, and the activists who advocate those expenditures, care about the planet and climate change, and the value is in the signal it sends to constituents, funders and the public, even if the result of those expenditures is dubious. Effectiveness is more murky and, apparently, a secondary consideration.

If climate change is, as environmental activists claim, the “most important” issue we face, they will certainly call for changes in the way we make policy and measure the effectiveness of government expenditures on the issue. If, instead, they simply advocate for more spending without adequate measures of effectiveness, then their behavior will speak more loudly than their words, indicating the political value of climate change as an issue is more important than solving it.

What Do Cuban Scientists and the AP Have In Common?

Answer: neither of them can get the science right on sea level rise.

Last Friday, this amusing story came across the the AP wires.

HAVANA – Cuban scientists calculate that median sea levels around the Caribbean nation will rise more than 30 inches by the end of the century due to global climate change, official media said Friday.

Models predict the sea will rise 10.6 inches (27 centimeters) by 2050, and 33.5 inches (85 centimeters) by 2100, Abel Centella, scientific director of the country’s Meteorological Institute, was quoted by Communist Party daily Granma as saying.

I tend to assume that such dispatches from Cuba, North Korea and the like, are redistributed by the AP with tongue firmly in cheek. Especially, since the Cuban estimates are at odds with the IPCC’s estimates. The IPCC, which is not known for downplaying risks from climate change, says the potential sea level rise under a “business as usual” scenario is 8-19 inches by 2100 (p. 409), significantly lower than the Cuban estimates.

Instead of poking fun at the Cubans, however, AP appears to confirm their projections in the final paragraph, claiming “International scientific studies have projected sea levels will rise between 30 and 75 inches (190 centimeters) by the end of the century, fed by melting glaciers and ice caps.” Ironically, the AP is even more alarmist than the Cubans, putting the 33.5 inches predicted by the Cuban scientists at the low end of the projection. It is also worth noting that melting glaciers and ice caps have a much lower impact on sea level rise than thermal expansion…but that’s beside the point.

I am sure there is a study somewhere indicating that sea levels could rise by 75 inches by 2100. The very purpose of the IPCC, however, is to prevent cherry-picking the science to fit political agendas. Needless, to say it doesn’t always do that very well. The environmental community, however, has been the most vocal about protecting the IPCC’s turf and when they deviate dramatically from the IPCC’s projections, it is a pretty good indication that game are being played with the science.

I think there is an important takeaway less from this:  if you agree with the Cuban media or scientists, you might want to double check your figures.

Climate Policy That Creates Dependency: It’s Not a Bug…It’s a Feature

One of the most significant problems with current climate policy is that costly failures have been difficult to eliminate. Even when it becomes clear that a policy isn’t achieving the promised environmental goals, special interest groups that financially benefit from the policy prevent it from being eliminated.

The best example of this is biofuel policy. Even Al Gore now admits the real damage caused by biofuel subsidies, both to the environment and the federal budget. He admitted:

It is not a good policy to have these massive subsidies for (U.S.) first generation ethanol. First generation ethanol I think was a mistake. The energy conversion ratios are at best very small. It’s hard once such a program is put in place to deal with the lobbies that keep it going.

With environmental damage and subsidies locked in, it is difficult to remove bad programs, wasting money that doesn’t improve energy efficiency.

While this has been correctly seen as a drawback by Gore and others, Senator Maria Cantwell’s new cap-and-dividend plan on carbon emissions touts the fact that the program creates dependency as a “key feature” of the plan. Joel Merkel, a policy advisor to Senator Cantwell who spoke at a climate conference last weekend, described how that dependency would be created.

Under the Senator’s C.L.E.A.R. Act, companies would pay to emit carbon, generating about $125 billion in revenue. Three quarters of that amount would then be sent to the public in the form of a check. Those checks, Merkel bragged, will make it difficult to get rid of the program.

It’s a politically reinforcing way of sustaining that program in the long term. And makes it very difficult to repeal it. It increases the popularity of the program. This is one of the key features of actually providing a rebate to consumers.

If you assume that politicians never make mistakes, I suppose, increasing dependency and making it hard to repeal the program is a positive.

If, however, you’ve paid any attention to the many climate policy failures — biofuel subsidies being a dramatic example — you might want a policy that is more flexible. What if climate change is less than expected? What if the cap creates significant economic impacts?

Cantwell’s plan is another example of how politics has come to trump science when it comes to climate and energy policy. Making the public more dependent on government isn’t a flaw of the program — it is a “key feature.”

You can see the video here.

Free Markets Make Every Day Earth Day

Each year, Earth Day offers an opportunity for politicians and others to highlight their support for environmental policies. Most of the work of environmental sustainability, however, occurs quietly every day as the free market encourages individuals to conserve energy and resources while planning for future prosperity.

Today, we celebrate the days which are not Earth Day, rejecting public acts of environmental symbolism, to celebrate the quiet, everyday acts that have made the real difference in environmental sustainability. Here are five of countless examples that come to mind.

1. Hybrid cars. While government subsidies and regulations, especially in California, were promoting all-electric and hydrogen cars, hybrid cars became the environmental benchmark. The Honda Insight and Toyota Prius didn’t benefit from government subsidies. They were not fully included in California’s green car law until 2007, nearly two decades after the initial green car regulations were passed. Toyota and Honda saw an opportunity to build a market niche, and their vehicles are now the most common public symbol of environmentalism.

2. Energy efficiency. The most potent force for reducing energy use is the incremental push to use less energy and keep costs down — a drive that is central to the free market. This force has been extremely powerful. Since 1950, the energy intensity of the US economy has been cut by two-thirds. We are doing more with less — the very definition of sustainability. It is worth pointing out that the only time energy intensity got worse was during the early 70s when President Richard M. Nixon put price caps on energy.

3. Expanding forests. While the state’s Department of Ecology spent yesterday warning 5-year olds about deforestation by reading “The Lorax,” the free market has been expanding forests. The United Nations reported earlier this year that “Forested areas in Europe, North America, the Caucasus and Central Asia have been increasing steadily, growing by 25 million hectares over the past two decades.” The report does not address deforestation concerns in poorer countries, which makes the point that the prosperity that comes from free markets is also good for expanding forests.

4. Reducing waste. As with energy, the free market also pushes to reduce waste, using resources more efficiently. For instance, the weight of all goods produced in 2006 was only slightly higher than in 1946 despite the fact the economy was seven times larger. Plastic bottles are a good example. Arrowhead’s Eco-Shape bottle uses 30 percent less plastic than previous versions. The individuals at Arrowhead pursued this technology because it reduces the amount they spend on plastic and reduces the weight they need to ship, saving energy. The same thing is true for the entire economy.

5. Air quality. It is no accident that air quality in wealthy countries is better than poorer countries. Technology and innovation have worked to improve air quality even before the U.S. passed the Clean Air Act in 1970. For example, sulfur dioxide emissions began falling before 1970 and before the cap-and-trade system to reduce acid rain was implemented in the 1980s. Innovation and a drive for more efficiency also meant improved air quality. Politicians are quick to claim credit for this trend, but they ignore data before 1970 and they downplay the role that innovation played in making their policies possible. The free market empowered politicians and environmental improvement, not the other way around.

Thanks to free markets, the environmental health of the planet is improving better every day. The Pacific Research Institute has released an excellent assessment of the environmental state of the planet in its annual “Almanac of Environmental Trends.” This doesn’t mean there are no environmental challenges, but it does mean that those challenges can be best addressed by the technology and incentives that come from the free market.

New Labour’s Opinion of Big Green

In the introduction to his book “The Green Wave” about the fundraising prowess of the environmental community, Bonner Cohen notes that as environmental groups become more powerful, they often forget their original goal of helping the environment. He notes that even lifelong environmental activist like Michael Schellenberger and Ted Nordhaus lament the fact that even while these groups now “boast large professional staffs and receive tens of millions of dollars in donations every year from foundations and individuals,” in many ways “the environmental movement’s fundamental concepts … are outmoded.” They are focusing more on fundraising and their organization than improving environmental sustainability.

Now another committed environmental believer has added his voice to this chorus of concern: former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

In his memoirs released last year, Blair expresses his frustration with non-governmental organizations (NGOs), especially environmental groups. Discussing the climate change negotiations at the G-8 summit in Gleneagles, Scotland, he writes:

Over time, I’m afraid I came to dislike part of the NGO culture, especially the Green groups. NGOs do a great job, don’t misunderstand me; but the trouble with some of them is that while they are treated by the media as concerned citizens, which of course they are, they are also organizations, raising money, marketing themselves and competing with other NGOs in a similar field. Because their entire raison d’ etre is to get policy changed, they can hardly say yes, we’ve done it, without putting themselves out of business. And they’ve learned to play the modern media game perfectly. As it’s all about impact, they shout louder and louder to get heard. Balance is not in the vocabulary. It’s all “outrage,” “betrayal,” “crisis.”

Given his commitment to negotiate an agreement to follow the Kyoto Protocol, one can hardly question Blair’s sympathy for the greens. Yet, even he recognizes that environmental groups have strayed from their original intent, confusing power with movement toward the goal they claim to care about.

Compelling Anecdotes Undermine Science Journalism on Climate Change

Today, Real Clear Science features a long piece I wrote on the interplay between the process of science and the storytelling of journalism. The problem arises when journalists substitute compelling anecdotes for scientific data, conflating the two. A recent story in the Seattle Times about one impact of climate change offers a good case study.

On March 5, the Seattle Times published a story highlighting the impact of climate change on the Costa Rican coffee crop, claiming recent declines are related to unpredictable weather caused by the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

The story’s headline captures the tone: “Climate change takes toll on coffee growers, drinkers too”. The impact of climate change on coffee, they argue, has been significant. “Yields in Costa Rica have dropped dramatically in the last decade,” the Times wrote, “with farmers and scientists blaming climate change for a significant portion of the troubles.”

But there are factual problems with the story.

(1) According to NASA, Costa Rican temperatures during 2008-09, the years with the largest drop in production, were only 0.6 degrees warmer than the 20th century baseline. The most significant increase occurred in the fall (September-November, 2008), of just over 1 degree F. This was left out of the story.

(2) Average temperatures in 2008-09 were only 0.1 degrees warmer than 1998-2000, when Costa Rican coffee harvests were 68 percent larger. The largest difference occurred in the fall, a difference of only 0.7 degrees.

(3) Temperatures in 2008-09 are actually 0.1 degrees lower than the average annual temperature during the 1991-93 period, which marked the country’s highest coffee production.

Even the climate scientist chosen by the Seattle Times to participate in an online chat about the story threw cold water on the link between the crop declines and climate change. Dr. Mike Wallace, a climate scientist at the University of Washington told me “the warming of the past 10 years is pretty small, both globally and over Costa Rica. I’m not at all sure that it’s been a factor in the decline of coffee production on this short time scale.”

Science journalism can be especially susceptible to the urge to substitute a simple, compelling story for the complexity of data-based science. Reporting the uncertainties of scientific information may not result in gripping journalism, but it is critical to enabling the public and policymakers to rely on the stories they read about climate change or the other environmental challenges we face.

You can read the entire piece at Real Clear Science. A longer version of the analysis is available at the Washington Policy Center.